$4 Was The Magic Number
In Ottoneu, whenever I wanted a prospect, a bid of $4 always did the trick. Byron Buxton? $4. Carlos Correa? 4. The list goes on. It was a strategy I counted on prior to last week. Apparently, the competition for top prospects heated up without my knowledge. Now, it’s all gone to hell.
Brad Miller = $6
Mark Appel = $4 (lost to owner who’s lower in the rankings)
Maikel Franco = $5
Last week, I auctioned Adam Eaton hoping to sneak him in under the radar and was hammered on that one too.
In fact, the last auction I won was for Jonathan Villar at $1 because nobody else bid. Their loss obviously.
As of today, it might be time to shift gears and be more aggressive when it comes to prospects. As the Trout’s, Harper’s and Puig’s of the world garner so much attention, the Segura’s, Machado’s and Miller’s are also dominating. Maybe it’s me, but the past season and a half has been a renaissance of young, talented baseball players.
Where owners once overvalued prospects because they weren’t particularly bright, are they now on the cutting edge? Prospects bust and bust frequently, but more seem to be excelling than ever before — Even those not ranked particularly high. Not only are they achieving success, it’s happening fast.
From the high school tournament circuit, to the explosion of video, to more scouts on the ground, organizations are making less mistakes. Maybe we are entering a period where prospects really aren’t that overvalued after all.
Of course I follow up the first part of this newsletter with an update on my splits strategy as it pertains to Aaron Hicks. With a .179/.249/.326 overall line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if just about every one of his owners cried uncle and cut the cord.
However, Hicks mashed lefties in the minor leagues and has continued to do so through his first 46 big league plate appearances (.898 OPS). Cry small sample size if you want to, but I’m confident playing him against lefties and would be looking to acquire him in dynasty leagues while his value is nil.
Even with his slow start and missed time, ZIPS has him finishing the season with 12 home runs and 13 stolen bases. Plus, it’s difficult to look at his .488 OPS from the left side and not wonder if a .700 OPS was possible against righties if he dropped switch hitting? No drastic change would be considered until instructs, but the Twins would probably try this before considering him just a platoon player.
30 Jan 2014 / Mike Newman /
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