David Wright: The Toughest Cut
In the Ottoneu Experts League, the decision between keeping David Wright or Clayton Kershaw was the toughest I had to make. On paper, Kershaw is $36 and produced $39 in value during the 2012 season. Wright costs $33 and produced $36 in value. In the end, I decided to keep Kershaw and release Wright back into the talent pool. Here’s the reasoning behind it.
There’s no doubt Clayton Kershaw is a better player than David Wright. But, a handful of managers inquired on Kershaw, so it’s not really a 1-1 decision. In thinking through the possibilities, I was forced to consider these scenarios:
Keep Wright, plus the trade return for Kershaw and lose the opportunity to own Kershaw since he’d be kept by the other owner.
Keep Kershaw and release Wright back into the talent pool. One team did have an interest in trading for Wright, the no real offers ever materialized.
With depth at both starting pitcher and third base, need was not a consideration. The decision was made based on the fact it would be much easier to replace $36 in offensive value than $39 in pitching value with approximately the same amount to re-invest.
David Wright was the 21st ranked position player in 2012.
- 31 position players were worth $30 or more
- 76 position players were worth $20 or more
- 123 position players were worth $10 or more
- 181 position players held positive value
Clayton Kershaw was the 3rd ranked pitcher in 2012.
- 11 pitchers were worth $30 or more
- 26 pitchers were worth $20 or more
- 68 pitchers were worth $10 or more
- 162 pitchers held positive value
Regardless of an owners ability, this information is valuable. Roll the dice on bats and you are 2-3x as likely to strike fantasy gold. On the flip side, the odds of replacing Kershaw’s value given the number of quality pitchers available is nil. Where owners go wrong is paying $30 for Yovani Gallardo or Yu Darvish as a substitute for losing out on a truly elite guy. At that point, the owner is losing about $20 per player. It’s the reason teams who build around arms never win anything.
In the end, it came down to excess value. as individual players, each was worth $3 in 2012 and there’s really no reason to believe either will see a decrease in value. But when considering both against the field of players, Kershaw’s excess value became irreplaceable.
24 Jan 2014 / Mike Newman /
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