Fantasy Fallout: McCann, Peralta And More
Yard work and writing five pages (1/2 way done) for Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball Magazine took up most of the weekend, but I still had time to think through the week’s free agent signings. Here are a few quick thoughts….
BRIAN MCCANN, C, YANKEES
I don’t read FanGraphs much anymore, but did see a quick piece breaking down the Brian McCann signing. The author mentioned he’d be a 5-win player in the American League now that 600 plate appearances is in the realm of possibility. The question I have is why would the Yankees want to give him that many plate appearances in the first place? McCann hasn’t hit lefties since 2011. Playing him versus lefties — especially if McCann is not behind the dish — makes little sense.
Offensively, McCann’s numbers will benefit from a short right field porch. Expect 20-plus home runs annually through the life of the contract — something I wouldn’t have said had he re-upped with the Braves. Five years is a considerable investment by the Yankees, but the contract only covers McCann’s age 30-34 seasons. In recent years, a number of catchers have continued to be productive into their late-30’s.
JHONNY PERALTA, SS, CARDINALS
Coming off a career high wRC+, Peralta scored a 50-plus million dollar deal for his age 32-35 seasons. When Peralta BABIP’s .325, he has value. In 2010 and 2012, Peralta’s BABIP dipped to .275. This yo-yo act isn’t good for your fantasy team, or the Cardinals for that matter.
For St. Louis, he’ll probably man the six or seven spot. Both the Tigers and Cardinals had strong starting lineups, so a bump in production because of a better supporting cast is not in the cards. I know Peralta’s deal was for a year and 32 million less than Brian McCann, but I’m more confident in the catcher holding his value than the new Cardinals shortstop.
JASON VARGAS, P, ROYALS
The Royals signed Jason Vargas. You can stop laughing now. Look, the lefty isn’t particularly good, but would I throw him against the White Sox and Twins? Absolutely! Vargas’ first three starts of 2014 may be against the White Sox, Twins and Astros. For a buck, you can do worse than a pitcher who limits damage and pitches against plenty of crummy teams.
DAVID MURPHY, OF, INDIANS
From 2008-2012, Murphy averaged 14 home runs and 10 steals per season in 476 plate appearances. He was the perfect fourth outfielder on a fantasy team and a guy I tried to add in Ottoneu since the format calls for five starting outfielders. Then, the bottom fell out in 2013 and he struggled to a .656 OPS. Murphy will be a part of an outfield rotation in Cleveland, but should reach 500 plate appearances. I expect a rebound in production as part of a balanced starting lineup. A plum spot in the batting order would be the two-hole between Michael Bourn and Jason Kipnis or Carlos Santana. However, I expect him to hit lower in the order.
CHRIS YOUNG, OF, METS
From 2007-2011, Chris Young averaged 23 home runs and 20 steals per season. In 2012-2013, the right-handed hitters home run and stolen base totals dipped to 13 and nine respectively. Entering his age-30 season, Young will have an opportunity to start 150 games as long as he’s healthy. Before dismissing Young as a has been, know his 162 game averages the past two seasons were 21 home runs and 15 steals. He’s worth a buck as a fifth outfielder in 2014.
Bourjos for Freese
Grichuk for Salas
What does this tell me?
Entering his age-27 season, a .256/.306/.398 triple slash line and plus defense in center was worth less than a 31-year old third baseman with a career line of .286/.356/.427. Why? Grichuk is a more valuable commodity than Salas, and it’s not really close.
When Bourjos has a career WAR of 9.0 versus 8.2 for Freese, it makes one re-think the value of the statistic.
4 Feb 2014 / Mike Newman /
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