Prospect Hangovers And Opportunity
I’m in Savannah, Georgia for a work conference and figured it was a great time to discuss prospect hangovers on a morning when half the city is probably hungover.
As for me, I found an English Pub with Founders Breakfast Stout, my favorite beer on earth, on tap. Needless to say it was a fun, late night.
With the Fake Teams mock dynasty draft wrapping up and hopefully posting today, here’s a look at my picks and the draft slot I took them. Feel free to give a little feedback via the message boards or email and let me know what you think.
I highlighted four of my first five picks because I’d consider them to be prospect hangover guys. Taijuan Walker fell to 10 and should have gone in the top-6 due to so-so Double-A numbers which has raised a touch of doubt.
Francisco Lindor was one of the youngest players drafted in 2011 and struggled a bit with the bat in his first taste of full season baseball.
Danny Hultzen floundered in Triple-A after posting strong numbers in the Southern League. Personally, I thought he’d be in Seattle by now, but it just hasn’t happened.
I wrote about Teheran about a week ago, so there’s no need to discuss his struggles again. Just know prospect followers expected him to be thriving at the Major League level right now and it hasn’t happened causing many to jump off of the bandwagon.
In drafts and through trade, I love targeting players who have pedigree, are still young or age appropriate for their respective levels, but “struggled” in the eyes of prospect followers. This is the definition of a prospect hangover. In terms of value, there’s no better play. As helium guys go off the board too early, sit back and grab the prospects nobody wants just yet.
Over at FanGraphs, I have a piece in the queue discussing Byron Buxton through the ups and downs of Aaron Hicks. To see Hicks ranked 98th on MLB.com’s top-100 has me believing it’s a great time to add him in dynasty leagues. After all, he was 33% better than league average in Double-A at an age appropriate level. He may never be the superstar people once thought, but if he winds up being Angel Pagan-like the pick will pay off bit.
In one league I recently left, Hicks was an original draft pick of mine who I held onto for years as an “untouchable” guy. Now, he’s so touchable that nobody in the FanGraphs Experts league considered him worth of an additional $1 in arbitration.
Of players I’ve scouted in person, Martin Perez, Casey Kelly and Nolan Arenado are also players who can be had for a fraction of their previous value. All will be good Major League players eventually due to high floors and strong skill sets.
I don’t have a nifty finish for this piece because I have to hop in the car for the first session in 15-minutes.
24 Jan 2014 / Mike Newman /
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