Trade Talk: Jean Segura For Jose Fernandez
In a bubble, few would consider Brewers shortstop Jean Segura for Marlins rookie pitcher Jose Fernandez an unfair trade for either side. But trades don’t occur in a bubble as outside factors can and should influence every trade made.
Through email, weekly chats and Twitter, I receive a number of, “Should I trade player x for player y?” Unfortunately, my generic response is, “I don’t have enough information to help.” This trade offer is a great opportunity to discuss what information is needed to make the best, and hopefully correct decision.
In Ottoneu, we have a $400 budget for the year. Segura costs $4 and Fernandez checks in at $2 this season. Each year, players jump $2 PLUS whatever money other owners assign to them through arbitration. Without explaining the process in depth, my best, cheap players were assigned an additional $3 – $6 last season.
Will Marlins Jose Fernandez continue to live up to instant legend status? If he does, then Fernandez is likely to be hammered through arbitration. This scares me.
My current roster includes Ross Detwiler ($1), Jeff Samardzija ($3), Kyle Lohse ($3), Ryan Dempster ($4) and Lance Lynn ($5). When I can add talented, veteran rotation depth for very little, is Jose Fernandez at $8-10 ($2 yearly bump plus $4-6 in expected arbitration) really that enticing?
Going forward, Fernandez will develop into a strong, three category pitcher in 5×5. But, if he wins 8-10 games per season because the Marlins are terrible, his value will be weighed down by factors outside of his control. In a quality starts league, I’d be more bullish.
Jean Segura may face the same fate, but my Manny Machado only received $3 in arbitration from other owners last winter. Plus, Segura at $10-$12 max looks great considering Alexei Ramirez went for $11 at auction.
In general, owners tagged dollars onto shiny, new toys, not guys like Segura who struggled initially and is better the second time around.
Plus, I believe Segura is a future 10+ home run, 30+ stolen base asset up the middle. With 15 team steals, I’m already 12 behind the leader and have only 4.5 of 12 possible points in the category.
Looking forward to 2014, it’s quite possible Simmons will be my only shortstop on the active roster should Machado and Espinosa lose eligibility. This trade would insulate me from having to overpay for a shortstop option later on.
The icing is the fact Ottoneu leagues include a shortstop, middle infield and utility position as a part of the starting lineup. This means Segura will play regardless of where Bogaerts and Machado end up.
I woke up this morning in first place and plan on contending for years to come. Additionally, I already know the budget won’t be there for me to be aggressive in next year’s auction.
Building a roster around cheap pitching is a vital part of Ottoneu strategy, but inexpensive outfielders and shortstops are equally important.
When it comes to trading, it’s important to assess deals against trends and rules of the league. No two deals are alike given how nuanced fantasy baseball is.
Additionally, keep an updated depth chart at all times and refer to it often. This will allow you to easily identify the glaring weak spots on your roster and add perspective to trade negotiations. It will also help keep you away from selling out to win it all once. Why do that when it’s possible to compete, and hopefully win, every year with a big of preparation and foresight?
25 Jan 2014 / Mike Newman /
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